Death map of the world

Death map of the world: Major report of 180 countries reveals how many people will die before their 70th birthday (so, how does your nation rank?)

  • Experts analysed the number of cancer, heart disease, lung disease and diabetes deaths in all the countries
  • They calculated the probability of a 30-year-old man and woman dying before they turn 70 in each of them
  • In a league table, the UK only ranked 17th best for men and 27th for women. And the US fared even worse
  • The report, published in the Lancet, is one of the most detailed studies of non-communicable diseases ever

Millions of people in the UK and US are dying before they turn 70, a major report has revealed today.

Scientists analysed the number of deaths from cancer, heart disease, lung disease and diabetes across 180 countries.

They calculated the probability of a 30-year-old man and woman dying before they turn 70 in each of the nations.

In a league table of the countries, the UK only ranked 17th best for men and 27th for women. And the US fared even worse, placing 53rd for men and 44th for women. Australia fared better, ranked 7th best for men and 8th for women.

The report, published in the Lancet, is one of the most detailed global studies of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in history.

In a league table of the countries, the UK only ranked 17th best for men and 27th for women. And the US fared even worse, placing 53rd for men and 44th for women

Imperial College London scientists say men and women in most countries around the world now have a higher chance of dying young from NCDs than HIV. 

They found a 30-year-old woman in the UK has a nine per cent chance of dying by the time they turn 70 from one of the four major NCDs.

Eighteen European countries, including Spain, Portugal, Switzerland and Italy, were shown to have a lower risk.


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South Korea topped the table, with women having a 4.7 per cent chance of dying from an NCD before their landmark birthday.

At the other end of the scale for women, the probability of an early death for those in Sierra Leone is 32.6 per cent.

The global report also revealed a 30-year-old man in the UK has a 13 per cent chance of dying before the age of 70 from an NCD. 

Iceland topped the table, with men in the country having a 9.9 per cent chance of dying prematurely.

By comparison, Mongolia was by far the worst offender (38.8 per cent) for men, researchers revealed.

Professor Majid Ezzati, who led the study, said: ‘NCDs are the main cause of premature death for most countries.

‘Poverty, uncontrolled marketing of alcohol and tobacco by multinational industries, and weak health care systems are making chronic diseases a larger danger to human health than traditional foes such as bacteria and viruses.’

Concerned experts have now warned most nations are falling short of UN targets to cut the number of premature deaths from NCDs.

Nearly 41 million people each year die from the diseases, which is the equivalent of one in seven deaths across the world.

Around 17 million, or 41 per cent, of these deaths are considered premature – happening before the age of 70.

The UN three years ago asked nations to cut the number of premature deaths from the four key NCDs by 2030.

But only 35 countries are on track to meet the target for women and only 30 countries for men, according to the new study.

Some of those countries on track to meet the UN target for both men and women include Denmark, New Zealand, Norway and South Korea.

By comparison, the UK, Australia, France, Germany, India and China will fail to hit the target for both sexes, if current trends continue.

According to the analysis, the situation is deteriorating or stagnating in 15 countries for women, including the US, and 24 for men. 

The report also involved scientists from the World Health Organization and NCD Alliance.

Katie Dain, from the NCD Alliance, said: ‘We are sleepwalking into a sick future because of severely inadequate progress on non-communicable diseases.’

Professor Ezzati warned ‘much of the world is falling short of the UN target to alleviate the burden of chronic diseases’.

But he added: ‘Dozens of countries could meet this goal with modest acceleration of already-favourable trends.

‘This requires national governments and international donors to invest in the right set of policies.’

Professor Ezzati argued treatment of hypertension and slashing rates of smoking and alcohol use could prevent millions of deaths.

But he warned there is also a need for affordable high-quality care to diagnose and treat chronic diseases as early as possible. 

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