Over the next few weeks certain different Corona-preventive measures solid the lives of the citizens in Germany.
Thus, a rapid spread of the novel Coronavirus should be prevented, and the health system relieved of pressure.
Feared wave of Infection was previously
Now, The feared wave of Covid-19 shows:-infections in Germany fortunately, so far, to a large extent; the death rate in comparison to other countries is low.
Since the predicted Numbers are not entered, by far, are now voices louder, the question whether the measures taken by the Shutdowns in the strength were needed at all.
How effective the Lockdown measures were?
Exactly at this point, the research team led by Jonas Dehning from the Max-Planck-Institute for dynamics and self-organization has recognized in Göttingen and the effect of the measures on the basis of the case, checked the numbers.
The science of learning for the benefit of their work, that the restrictions introduced in Germany in three temporally separate steps and public life was in parallel, shut down.
This can be tracked for each measure, whether or not this was effective for the reduction of the transmission rate contributed, and so the new infections has been contained.
Corona-Shutdown divided into four phases
Within their study, which was published in the journal ‘Science’, evaluated the researchers, the registered Covid-19-case from figures in Germany for four phases:
- prior to the introduction of the measures
- after the cancellation of public events (to the 8. March)
- after the closure of day-care centres, schools, universities and many shops (around for 16. March)
- after the contact barrier (from 22. March)
To be able to a realistic picture drawing, were taken into account, a reporting delay of five to six days to onset of symptoms, as well as the time span of two to three days to the test results.
Indicators for researchers
Then, the göttingen-based scientists calculated the rate of the spread rate of the Virus on the basis of different indicators, including the rate of reproduction and growth.
The reproduction rate is, how many people are infects a of Infected. It is one thing to put every Infected one more Person. Under one, the number of new Infections is declining.
The growth rate shows whether more people are infected, or more healthy. It is greater than Zero, the Numbers increase exponentially. It is smaller, more people are healthy than sick.
Corona-measures show measurable effects
“Our analysis clearly shows the effect of the different measures that ultimately brought together a strong reversal of the trend,” says research group leader Viola man Praised in a communication to the study.
The first major turning point occurred according to the study results, approximately 7. March. “That agrees with the cancellation of big public events such as football games,” the report says.
The second noticeable Gradation was to the 16. March and “fits to the closure of educational institutions and some shops”. This measure, the growth rate lowered to nearly Zero.
Finally, the third incision followed on 24. March, which coincides with the entry into force of the third package of measures – the far – reaching contact lock-in agreement.
“During the first two change points was not sufficient, a decline in new infections to trigger, brought the third measure, this critical reversal,” conclude the Scientists.
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Restrictions were in the fight against Corona is necessary
The results speak for themselves: The containment measures all showed a concrete, measurable effect.
At the same time, the scientists emphasize in their work that the combination of all the measures taken, was necessary in order to stop the exponential spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the end.
In clear text this means: The Shutdown of the last few weeks has worked. Without the measures taken, the Virus could have spread in this country much faster and uncontrollable.
Effects of the easing are beginning to show
For the next few weeks and months, for the citizens of means to hold out and, if possible, continue to keep distance. Otherwise, a second wave of Infection that could threaten.
An accurate prediction, as it goes now, but meeting no one. Because the Changes in the spread of the Virus, show only with a strong delay.
“The first effects of the relaxations of 20. April, we see Recently in the case of numbers,” explains Michael Wilczek from the Max-Planck-Institute for dynamics and self-organization.
“And until we, the loosening of 11. May be able to evaluate, we have to wait two to three weeks.”
Caution is still warranted
But one thing is for sure: the rate of infection remains in a controllable framework that cannot be taken away from the Virus is now on the slight shoulder.
“If all the people are still very careful, and contact tracing by health authorities effective attacks, and at the same time all the new foci of infection early and contained to be tracked, then the case numbers continue to fall,” says pries guy.
“How the Numbers will develop in the future depends so critical of our behavior, the observance of the distance recommendations and hygiene measures.”
- Dehning, J., et al. (2020): Inferring change points in the spread of COVID-19 reveals the effectiveness of interventions, retrieved on 20.05.2020 https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/14/science.abb9789
- Max-Planck-Institute for dynamics and self-organization (2020): What are the measures to bring? The göttingen Team analysed the epidemic history, archived from the original on 20.05.2020 https://www.ds.mpg.de/3579066/200515_corona_science
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